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In the upcoming year, Big Tech is set to experience its downfall. Various groups, including opposing political parties, mainstream pundits, and even tech giants like Y Combinator, are coming together to defend what is known as “little tech” against the dominance of established incumbents.
One major reason for Big Tech’s impending failure in 2025 is the decline of their investment in the AI business. Big players in finance such as Goldman Sachs and Sequoia Capital are expressing concerns about the significant financial resources required to build and operate large-scale AI systems. Additionally, there are worries about the market fit and low returns associated with the current AI business model.
The negative impact of Big Tech’s economic model is becoming increasingly evident. Issues such as centralization, surveillance, and information control are becoming too glaring to ignore. The culmination of power in the hands of a few entities has proven to have detrimental consequences. An example of this was seen in the CrowdStrike outage of mid-2024, when critical systems in areas such as healthcare, finance, and transportation experienced widespread failures on an international scale.
It is becoming clear to both the public and policymakers that AI technologies rely heavily on sensitive data and have the potential to compromise privacy, a concern that is becoming more pronounced with the rise of platforms like Signal. AI systems such as Microsoft’s Recall, introduced in June, have raised significant privacy concerns by capturing detailed information about users’ activities on their devices in an attempt to provide a “perfect memory” of their computing habits.
However, amidst these challenges, there is also a growing movement towards the development of alternative technologies that prioritize democratic, transparent, and independent values over monopolistic practices. Open source developers, governance researchers, and specialists in tech sector political economics are collaborating in Europe to build resilient core tech infrastructure.
There is a shift in the investment landscape, with many investors moving away from traditional paradigms and towards funding innovation that opposes surveillance and social control. One innovative concept that has emerged from these discussions is the idea of combining traditional venture capital incentives with investments in nonprofit tech infrastructure to create a thriving innovation ecosystem.
Furthermore, there is a call for state capital to supplement private investments in these new technologies. Initiatives such as Germany’s Sovereign Tech Fund, which supports key open source infrastructures with state funds while maintaining autonomy in its administration, serve as a model for how public resources can be utilized to foster innovation in the tech sector.
The impending demise of Big Tech in 2025 is seen as an opportunity to cultivate a healthier tech ecosystem. By dismantling the dominance of these incumbent giants, there is hope for a renewed focus on creativity, innovation, and societal benefit rather than profit and control. This shift towards a more open and collaborative IT environment holds promise for a future where technology serves the greater good.
